A study looking at the evaluation of football players' performance by coaches and journalists found that players' performance is judged to be substantially better-over a whole match-if the player had a lucky goal rather than an unlucky miss (after a player's shot hit one of the goal posts). Outside of psychological experiments, the outcome bias has been found to be substantially present in real world situations. To avoid the influence of outcome bias, one would evaluate a decision by ignoring information collected after the fact and focusing on what the right answer is, or was at the time the decision was made. The reason why an individual makes this mistake is that he or she will incorporate currently available information when evaluating a past decision. " The ends justify the means" is an often used aphorism to express the Outcome effect when the outcome is desirable. Those presented with bad outcomes rated the decision worse than those who had good outcomes. Subjects were presented with either a good or bad outcome (in this case living or dying), and asked to rate the quality of the surgeon's pre-operation decision. The surgery had a known probability of success. One such example involved a surgeon deciding whether or not to do a risky surgery on a patient. Individuals whose judgments are influenced by outcome bias are seemingly holding decision-makers responsible for events beyond their control.īaron and Hershey (1988) presented subjects with hypothetical situations in order to test this. The actual outcome of the decision will often be determined by chance, with some risks working out and others not. This is an error because no decision-maker ever knows whether or not a calculated risk will turn out for the best. One will often judge a past decision by its ultimate outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made, given what was known at that time. Hindsight bias focuses on memory distortion to favor the actor, while the outcome bias focuses exclusively on weighting the past outcome heavier than other pieces of information in deciding if a past decision was correct. While similar to the hindsight bias, the two phenomena are markedly different. Unlike hindsight bias, outcome bias does not involve the distortion of past events. Outcome bias does not involve analysis of factors that lead to a previous event, and instead de-emphasizes the events preceding the outcomes and overemphasizes the outcome. This error arises when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events, without regard to how the past events developed. This worksheet pack addressing hindsight bias includes client handouts and key therapist questions.Outcome Bias, also known as the Disparity Fallacy and Equity Fallacy, is a form of confirmation bias, and by extension a cognitive bias. Helpful questions to explore hindsight bias might include "given what you knew at the time what reason did you have to think that X might happen?", "when did you start to feel guilty, and what information had you learned that led to you feeling that way?". Overcoming hindsight bias requires reappraisal of a situation from the perspective of the individual at the time. Hindsight bias can be particularly problematic following traumatic events – individuals may come to unfairly blame themselves for things that they did not predict (and could not have predicted) in advance and may feel particularly responsible or guilty as a consequence. People may say "I knew it all along" or "why didn't I do something differently?". Once a situation has occurred hindsight bias can make that event seem more obvious and predictable than was actually the case at the time. Hindsight bias is a form of cognitive bias / cognitive distortion.
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